The Black Sea Grain Deal: A Shifting Landscape of Global Food Security

The Black Sea region, historically a crucial breadbasket for the world, has been at the epicenter of geopolitical and economic shifts impacting global food security. The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, was a landmark agreement aimed at facilitating the safe passage of Ukrainian grain and foodstuffs through the Black Sea during the ongoing Russian invasion. While the initiative itself expired in July 2023, its legacy and the ongoing efforts to ensure grain exports from Ukraine continue to shape global markets and food accessibility.

The Genesis and Impact of the Black Sea Grain Initiative

Signed in July 2022, the BSGI was a critical response to the disruption of Ukrainian grain exports following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Ukraine, a major global supplier of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil, saw its ports blockaded, leading to a significant increase in global food prices and raising fears of widespread famine, particularly in developing nations. The UN-brokered deal allowed for the safe passage of commercial food and fertilizer exports from three key Ukrainian ports: Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi.

The initiative proved instrumental in stabilizing and lowering global food prices. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global food staple prices declined significantly during the initiative’s operation, with wheat and maize prices showing upward trends again as concerns about the deal’s renewal mounted. Between July 2022 and July 2023, the BSGI facilitated the export of nearly 33 million metric tons of grain and other foodstuffs to 45 countries, playing an “indispensable role” in global food security.

The initiative also aimed to ensure Russian food and fertilizer exports reached global markets, a parallel aspect that Russia argued was not fully implemented. Russia cited these unfulfilled demands as the primary reason for its withdrawal from the deal in July 2023.

Russia’s Withdrawal and the Aftermath

Russia’s withdrawal from the BSGI in July 2023 marked a significant turning point, leading to renewed fears of escalating food prices and a deepening global food crisis. Following Russia’s exit, the initiative expired, and Russia launched missile attacks on Ukrainian port cities, further disrupting grain handling facilities. Analysts warned that the collapse of the deal would disproportionately affect nations in North Africa and the Levant, which are heavily reliant on Black Sea grain imports.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the suspension of the deal could lead to a 10-15% increase in global grain prices. World food prices indeed saw an increase following the collapse of the deal, with vegetable oil and rice prices contributing to the FAO’s Food Price Index rise in July 2023.

Ukraine’s Alternative Corridors and Current Export Landscape

Despite the expiration of the BSGI, Ukraine has actively sought and established alternative routes to continue its grain exports. Following Russia’s withdrawal, Ukraine launched its own Black Sea corridor in August 2023, which hugs the coastlines of NATO member states. This corridor, along with increased shipments via the Danube River and overland routes through the EU (“Solidarity Lanes”), has allowed grain to continue flowing, albeit at reduced volumes compared to pre-war levels.

As of early 2025, Ukraine’s grain exports have shown resilience, though they face significant challenges. For the 2024/2025 marketing year, Ukraine’s grain exports have seen a decrease compared to the previous season. For instance, cumulative exports from July 2024 to April 2025 totaled approximately 33.38 million metric tons (MT), a 13% drop from the previous season. April 2025 alone saw a significant plummet in exports, with a 72% decline year-on-year.

Key Export Figures and Trends (2024-2025 Marketing Year)

• Total Exports: As of April 9, 2025, Ukraine had exported approximately 33.2 million tons of grains and legumes, a decrease of 11.05% compared to the same period last year.
• Wheat Exports: Wheat exports reached about 13.3 million tons, a 9.1% decrease year-on-year.
• Corn Exports: Ukrainian corn exports summed up to 13.47 million tons, an 8.1% decrease compared to the previous year. However, SovEcon revised its 2024 Ukraine corn crop and export estimates upwards in November 2024, increasing its corn export forecast for the 2024/25 season to 20.3 million tons.
• Barley Exports: Barley exports have shown a rare bright spot, with a 5% annual increase in cumulative exports to 2.24 million MT by April 2025.
• Flour Exports: Flour exports have seen a significant decline, with a 49.8% decrease compared to last year.

The Ukrainian grain market in 2024/25 is characterized by improved pricing for corn, but lagging export volumes. Drought conditions in 2024 impacted corn yields, exacerbating shortages. Furthermore, competition from U.S. corn in EU markets has intensified, with the U.S. securing 16% of EU imports.

Russia’s Position and Renewed Diplomatic Efforts

Russia has expressed interest in resuming the Black Sea Initiative in a form that is “more acceptable to all parties.” Discussions with the United States in March 2025 regarding a potential ceasefire with Ukraine included the topic of reviving the grain deal. Russia’s demands for the deal’s revival include the lifting of restrictions on its agricultural bank, the resumption of key trade routes, and the unfreezing of assets tied to food exports. Russia claims that while its food and fertilizer exports are not subject to Western sanctions, restrictions on payments, logistics, and insurance have created barriers.

However, analysts suggest that Russian grain and fertilizer exports have already reached record levels during the conflict, and that current exports are proceeding without significant issues, even without an official truce or grain deal. The U.S. agreement to help Russia sell its grain and fertilizer on the world market has drawn criticism from Ukraine, which was not consulted on the proposal.

Turkey continues to play a mediating role, with President Erdogan expressing hope for the extension of the Black Sea grain deal and indicating that Ankara and Moscow are on the same page regarding its continuation. Discussions between Turkish and Russian foreign ministers have also taken place.

Challenges and Future Outlook

The Black Sea grain trade remains fragile, navigating risks related to port infrastructure, military stability, and global competition. Ukraine’s agricultural sector continues to be buffeted by war-driven disruptions, weather-related harvest declines, and intensifying global competition.

Russia’s renewed attacks on Ukrainian grain infrastructure pose a significant threat, impacting capacity and increasing export costs. The EU’s decision to terminate its Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) on Ukrainian wheat exports, imposing quotas, further complicates Ukraine’s access to key markets and forces a pivot to other regions where price competition is fierce.

Looking ahead, the viability of Ukraine’s grain exports hinges on a precarious balance of supply chain resilience, shifting trade policies, and the ongoing conflict. While Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable resilience in maintaining its export capacity through alternative routes, the absence of a comprehensive Black Sea grain agreement leaves the global food supply chain vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and market volatility.

The future of Black Sea grain trade will likely involve continued efforts to formalize existing export routes, potential diplomatic breakthroughs that could ease tensions, and ongoing adaptation to a dynamic geopolitical and climatic landscape.