Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: The State of Play as of November 17, 2025
As the conflict enters a more protracted and technologically complex phase heading into the late autumn of 2025, the Russian Federation continues to prosecute a multi-axis war against Ukrainian sovereignty. The operational environment is characterized by grinding attrition in the east, strategic long-range strikes against national infrastructure, and a high-technology contest over aerial and electromagnetic dominance. This assessment synthesizes key findings regarding engagements across the southern operational zone, the persistent aerial campaign, technological adaptations, internal Russian military dynamics, and the role of integrated Western support as of November 15, 2025, based on analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and related contemporary reporting.
Engagements Across the Southern Operational Zone
The southern theatre, spanning parts of Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts, exhibits a distinctly different operational tempo compared to the high-intensity attrition observed in the eastern sectors. Russian forces in the south largely aim to consolidate recently seized ground and probe for exploitable seams in Ukrainian defenses. This activity is often characterized by aggressive, localized raids designed to fix Ukrainian reserve formations and meticulously test the resilience of defensive postures rather than launching massive, sustained combined arms offensives.
The Velykomykhailivka and Hulyaipole Directional Pressures
The region southwest and southeast of Hulyaipole, specifically involving the Velykomykhailivka direction, has demonstrated a notable increase in the pace and intensity of Russian offensive actions in the days leading up to the mid-November report. Russian formations are actively attempting to exploit tactical conditions, leveraging the reduced observational capability inherent to adverse weather, which significantly inhibits Ukrainian drone reconnaissance. The apparent strategic objective in this area centers on the isolation and potential encirclement of Hulyaipole itself.
Reports confirm that Russian advances are creating tangible pressure upon the T-Zero-Four-Zero-One highway, which serves as a crucial ground line of communication supplying the town. Military analysis indicates a coordinated effort, with elements from multiple Russian Combined Arms Armies converging on the area, specifically attempting to degrade Ukrainian defenses to enable a breakthrough. Notably, there are indications of a strategic shift in focus: elements from the Russian 35th Combined Arms Army, previously positioned to the south and southwest of Hulyaipole, have reportedly been redeployed to reinforce the axis of advance from the northeast, likely because Ukrainian defensive concentrations are assessed to be significantly stronger to the south, which would render a southern encirclement considerably more difficult and costly at this juncture.
Stability of Lines in Western Zaporizhia Oblast and Kherson Approaches
In the western stretches of Zaporizhia Oblast, the nature of engagement leans toward persistent, localized attempts to penetrate Ukrainian rear areas, frequently executed through small-scale infiltration missions rather than large-scale, conventional combined arms assaults. While Russian forces continue to exert offensive pressure, substantial, confirmed territorial advances across the broader western Zaporizhia sector have generally not materialized as of November 15, 2025. Ukrainian defensive forces in this sector have repeatedly demonstrated the capacity to maintain their established lines or, in specific localized instances, even secure minor positional improvements, suggesting a relative stabilization in this operational area compared to the eastern fronts.
In the Kherson direction, Russian activity mirrors this pattern, limited primarily to probing attacks and efforts to apply pressure against the established defensive lines along the riverfront. These localized efforts have not translated into any significant alteration of terrain control. The strategic focus for Russian forces here remains centered on maintaining defensive integrity and preparing for potential future Ukrainian operational moves, rather than initiating a major Russian offensive breakthrough at this time.
The Campaign Against Ukrainian Infrastructure and Deep Strikes
A defining and persistent feature of the current conflict phase is Russia’s sustained, large-scale aerial campaign meticulously targeting both Ukraine’s military and civilian infrastructure. This campaign is strategically amplified as the nation enters the critical winter heating and energy consumption period, aiming to degrade Ukraine’s capacity to sustain its war effort and erode the morale of its civilian population.
Analysis of the Escalation in Drone and Missile Strikes Ahead of Winter
The operational tempo of these long-range strikes escalated significantly in the days leading up to the assessment date. Ukrainian energy operator Ukrenergo reported that in massive barrages throughout October and early November 2025, Russian forces launched over 1,500 missiles and 2,000 strike drones against critical infrastructure. An exceptionally large single-night volley was recorded on the night of November 7 to 8, involving over 500 distinct aerial threats. Further evidence of saturation tactics includes the attack on the night of November 13-14, where the Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of 19 missiles (13 ballistic) and 430 drones (approximately 300 Shahed-type).
The inventory of launched weaponry is intentionally diverse, featuring a significant volume of Shahed-type unmanned aerial vehicles, supplemented by specialized drone variants and high-speed, strategic missiles, including Kh-47M2 Kinzhal and Zircon variants. The coordination of these strikes, launched from multiple vectors including Russian-controlled airspace, occupied Crimea, and Belarusian territory, is explicitly designed to overwhelm integrated Ukrainian air defense networks through sheer volume and saturation tactics. This sustained campaign compels Ukraine to expend valuable, increasingly finite air defense interceptors on protecting civilian energy nodes rather than exclusively prioritizing direct frontline combat support.
Impact Assessment of Targeting on Civilian and Military Energy Assets
The operational goal of these continuous long-range strikes is demonstrably twofold: to inflict maximum disruption on the national energy grid necessary for the winter months and to force a diversion of critical air defense assets away from active combat zones. The repeated targeting of critical substations, power generation facilities, and fuel storage depots, including gas infrastructure during the heating season, suggests an intent to induce systemic failures rather than just isolated incidents. Ukrainian military observers consistently report the necessity of intercepting these massed attacks; however, the sheer volume employed by the Russian Aerospace Forces ensures a significant percentage often achieve their intended objective or force the system into emergency shutdowns, leading to civilian casualties and disruption. This reflects a cold strategic calculation that sustained societal disruption and economic damage may hasten a political erosion of support for continued resistance.
Technological and Adaptation Warfare: Drone Supremacy and Countermeasures
The conflict has rapidly transformed into a high-technology contest, where battlefield success increasingly hinges on the rapid adaptation and deployment of unmanned systems and precision-guided munitions. The contest is now fought not only over physical terrain but critically within the electromagnetic and aerial spectrums, with both sides striving to neutralize the other’s technological edge.
Russian Employment of Guided Munitions and Weather Exploitation
A key element contributing to current Russian tactical advantages, particularly in sectors where visibility is reduced, is the extensive utilization of glide bombs (KABs). These munitions, derived from unguided aerial bombs fitted with guidance packages, dramatically extend the effective range and lethality of tactical air support while minimizing the exposure of strike aircraft to sustained Ukrainian air defense fire. ISW observed that Russia began using modified, longer-range glide bombs (up to 180 kilometers) against Ukrainian cities in October 2025.
Reports from sectors like Novopavlivka and the southern front indicate that Russian forces are deliberately timing their offensive maneuvers to coincide with periods of adverse weather—dense fog, low cloud cover, or heavy precipitation—which severely degrade the observation and targeting capabilities of Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. By weaponizing these conditions, Russian assault groups can close distances for infiltration and consolidate nascent gains with a reduced risk of immediate, drone-based counterfire or accurate artillery correction from Ukrainian defenders. The scale of Russia’s projected production capacity for these guided munitions throughout 2025 suggests this tactic will remain a foundational element of their offensive strategy.
Ukrainian Efforts in Battlefield Air Interdiction Replication and Air Defense Hardening
In direct response to the observed dominance of Russian glide bombs and drone saturation, Ukrainian forces are actively attempting to develop and field their own credible form of Battlefield Air Interdiction (BAI). This initiative appears to involve adapting existing or newly supplied long-range precision systems to target Russian air assets on their approach or immediately after launch, effectively mirroring the effect Russia has sought.
Furthermore, Ukrainian military leadership is making concerted efforts to enhance the resilience and responsiveness of their integrated air defense system. Lessons learned from years of sustained Russian barrages are being rapidly incorporated into new operational doctrines, emphasizing layered defense, layered redundancy, and more agile counter-drone measures. A significant development in this area is the announced start of **serial production of the Ukrainian-developed “Octopus” interceptor drone** on November 14, 2025. This combat-proven system is designed to effectively intercept Shahed-type UAVs, even operating at night, in electronic warfare (EW) contested environments, and at low altitudes—conditions that typically strain conventional air defenses. This domestic production effort runs in parallel with continued diplomatic efforts, as President Zelensky indicated imminent finalization of a **”historic agreement” with France** for combat aircraft and the forthcoming delivery of **other powerful air defense systems** to protect key regions, including Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
Internal Russian Military Dynamics and Personnel Management
The overall effectiveness and sustainability of the Russian offensive capability are intrinsically linked to its internal military management, force generation pipeline, and the command structures tasked with executing high-level political objectives. Reports from the period indicate significant, though quietly managed, changes in high-level logistics oversight, coupled with an ongoing reliance on demographic realities to maintain manpower levels.
Recent High-Level Command Adjustments and Logistical Restructuring
A highly notable development in the structure of the Russian military apparatus is a significant reshuffling within the logistical arm of the Ministry of Defense. On November 8, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Southern Military District (SMD) Commander, Colonel General Alexander Sanchik, to the critical role of Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics, relieving him of his SMD command. Sanchik replaces Colonel General Andrei Bulyga, who had served in the logistics role since March 2024. This high-level intervention suggests a clear recognition by the top leadership of systemic failures or critical shortcomings in the sustainment of far-flung combat operations. The move signals an attempt to centralize and streamline the notoriously complex and often inefficient Russian supply chain, particularly as operations extend deeper into Ukrainian territory and logistical lines face increasing interdiction threats, elevating logistical readiness as a key factor for sustaining the operational tempo through the late autumn and early winter months.
Ongoing Personnel Replenishment Strategies and Morale Considerations
To offset the considerable manpower losses sustained across previous campaigns and to fill the ranks necessary for the formation of new offensive groupings, the Russian command continues to rely on sophisticated, and at times coercive, social engineering programs. The expansion of initiatives designed to create a loyal post-service class serves a dual function: recruitment and ideological reinforcement for the regime’s narrative. By offering substantial incentives and social standing to veterans willing to recommit to the military structure, Moscow attempts to manage acute personnel shortages while simultaneously bolstering internal political support. The practical effectiveness of these programs in providing high-quality, highly motivated troops suitable for front-line assault roles remains a point of ongoing debate among military analysts, especially when performance is benchmarked against that of more established, albeit significantly depleted, regular formations.
Ukrainian Operational Responses and Western Support Integration
The Ukrainian defense remains highly dynamic, characterized by the ability to fluidly shift between determined static defense, active counter-maneuvering, and strategic deep strikes against Russian rear areas. The efficacy of these multi-domain responses is critically intertwined with the consistency, speed, and volume of military and technical assistance flowing from the coalition of international partners.
Defensive Maneuvers and Successful Counter-Infiltration Operations
Ukrainian forces have demonstrated commendable tactical flexibility, particularly when confronting integrated Russian assaults. In sectors like the Zaporizhia region, where Russian forces have attempted localized withdrawals following heavy engagement, Ukrainian action has been notably swift in capitalizing on momentary confusion or control vacuums. More broadly, a hallmark of current Ukrainian operational success is the consistent ability to rapidly identify and neutralize Russian infiltration missions. These missions often involve small, highly mobile assault groups attempting to establish fleeting, forward positions behind the main line of battle. Successfully pre-empting these deep penetrations prevents Russia from building the necessary forward staging areas required for larger, more sustainable offensives, thereby blunting the potential operational gains of infiltration tactics before they can mature into established territorial control. The observed integration of enhanced intelligence sharing appears to be contributing positively to the pre-emptive identification of these penetration attempts.
Status of Western Material Deliveries and Their Impact on Frontline Endurance
The continued endurance and operational capacity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are assessed to be directly proportional to the reliable delivery of promised military support packages from allied nations. The most immediate and noticeable battlefield impacts are evident in the consistent flow of modern artillery ammunition, which permits Ukrainian batteries to match or exceed Russian counter-battery fire, and the arrival of advanced air defense interceptors, which are essential for managing the sustained aerial bombardment campaign.
The integration timeline for recently arrived armored and heavy equipment remains a key monitoring point for strategic analysts. If these new systems can be brought to bear effectively—particularly in stabilizing critical sectors such as the Pokrovsk defensive line, which remains a high-priority focus for Russia—they hold the potential to shift the immediate tactical balance from a slow Russian grind toward a heavily contested, stabilized position. This stabilization would significantly degrade the overall feasibility of Moscow’s current maximalist objectives before the year concludes. The strategic message conveyed by this reliable flow of materiel, including the imminent arrival of further air defense and aircraft following anticipated agreements with partners like France, is as significant as its physical presence on the front lines.