Conclusion: The Narrative Holds Until the Facts Change. Find out more about ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment March 1 2026.

As we assess the trajectory of the war on March 2, 2026, the initial, overwhelming narrative projected by the Kremlin—that Ukrainian resistance is doomed without immediate surrender—is demonstrably being undermined by operational realities. The localized counterattacks since late 2025, particularly in the Kupyansk sector, have not only cost Russia time and materiel but have proven that Ukrainian forces retain the capability to seize and retain territory, even against an entrenched adversary. The enduring strength of the Western coalition, largely held together by European resolve despite US ambiguity, has provided the necessary *material buffer* to sustain this fight. However, this external dependence remains the primary vulnerability. The next few months will test whether the committed European financial and materiel flow—alongside Ukraine’s push for domestic production—can sustain this successful operational pattern until the high cost of the war finally forces a change in Moscow’s strategic calculus. What key indicator are you watching most closely over the next 90 days to gauge the direction of the war? Share your thoughts in the comments below—let’s keep this discussion grounded in operational facts, not political hope. For further reference on the coalition’s efforts and the broader context of European security in this new era, consult reports from key security institutions. The ongoing situation demands clear-eyed analysis of the Institute for the Study of War’s latest assessments, and the detailed geopolitical risk outlooks provided by organizations like Chatham House.