Washington’s Opaque Gambit: The 28-Point Plan and Allied Briefings
The role of Washington in this phase is arguably the most complex and consequential. By engaging in a back-channel process, the US administration is attempting to create a diplomatic off-ramp that bypasses the stated positions of the combatants, hoping to present a *fait accompli* that forces acceptance, much as the Gaza deal was intended to do. The arrival of US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Army Chief of Staff General Randy George in Kyiv on an unannounced trip is a physical manifestation of this pressure, intended to engage Ukrainian leadership on the “stalled peace process.”
The Gaza Blueprint and European Anxiety
The reported inspiration for the 28-point plan—the US-brokered Gaza ceasefire—carries its own weight. That agreement, while achieving a cessation of major hostilities, has been plagued by accusations of breaches from both sides since its inception. This precedent raises an immediate red flag in European capitals, which view any solution that might “cement Russia’s territorial gains” with profound alarm. The fear is that a solution brokered by Washington, focused perhaps on European security architecture more broadly rather than Ukrainian territorial finality, could be seen as a betrayal. It is a strategic gamble that bets military pressure plus back-channel talks will force a favorable outcome, but it risks alienating the very partners whose sustained aid is essential. We must remember that for many in Europe, this is not merely a distant conflict; European energy security is inextricably linked to the stability of the Eastern European theatre.
The Crucial Role of European Briefings. Find out more about Kremlin response to secret peace talks Ukraine.
The White House’s move to begin briefing European officials on the new proposal is the necessary, albeit belated, step toward inclusivity. If these briefings are perceived as mere information dissemination rather than genuine consultation, the cohesion of the Western coalition will suffer a significant blow. The briefing process must serve to:
- Address European concerns over territorial concessions and security guarantees in the context of the 28 points.
- Align sanctions policy with the proposed framework, ensuring that the economic pressure points align with the diplomatic efforts.. Find out more about Kremlin response to secret peace talks Ukraine guide.
- Reassure capitals, particularly those closest to the conflict like Poland, that the process is not abandoning core Ukrainian interests for American strategic goals.
- Mutual Trust on Territorial Issues: The US must secure a demonstrable signal from Moscow that its maximalist demand on territory is flexible enough to allow Ukraine to save face and secure a defensible peace. This is unlikely without a significant military setback for Russia, which counteracts the leverage the strikes aim to create.
- Ukrainian Buy-In on Neutrality Framework: Kyiv needs assurances, likely from Washington, that any neutrality agreement will be accompanied by security guarantees from key NATO members that are *stronger* than the current framework—perhaps a binding defense pact that functions as a NATO article 5-lite, addressing their non-negotiable security fears.. Find out more about Zelenskyy managing military aid and sovereign aims definition guide.
- Transparency Over Secrecy: The US must quickly transition from *informing* allies about the 28-point plan to *consulting* on it. Secrecy breeds suspicion, as evidenced by the political tremors across Europe. A transparent dialogue, even if difficult, is the only way to secure unified long-term commitment for any outcome.
The success of this secret track hinges entirely on how effectively Washington can convert European partners from concerned observers into committed believers in the *new* path forward.
The Kremlin’s Unyielding Pillars and the Wider European Front. Find out more about Kremlin response to secret peace talks Ukraine tips.
While the US and Ukraine juggle high-level diplomacy, the Kremlin maintains a firm, predictable public line that acts as an anchor to reality. The diplomatic noise does not appear to have shifted their stated bottom line, which remains the largest hurdle to any meaningful public progress.
The Prerequisite Chasm: Territory and Neutrality
For Moscow, the fundamental prerequisites remain the same: explicit recognition of its control over the currently occupied territories and a legally binding commitment from Ukraine to constitutional neutrality, shelving any future aspirations for Western military alliances. This is the “chasm” mentioned at the outset. The Russian envoy’s reported optimism—that “we feel the Russian position is really being heard”—suggests that in the back-channel, the US may be entertaining these points as *negotiable trade-offs* for a broader European security settlement. However, for Kyiv, ceding territory is perceived as rewarding aggression, and abandoning sovereignty guarantees is seen as signing a death warrant against future security. This disconnect is the central paradox: secret talks aimed at peace are only succeeding in codifying maximalist demands. We can see a parallel in historical peace efforts; for instance, examining the historical context of failed post-war treaties can reveal patterns in this current impasse.
Sabotage Beyond the Border: The Polish Railway Case Study. Find out more about Kremlin response to secret peace talks Ukraine strategies.
The conflict’s corrosive effect is spilling over into neighboring NATO territory, demonstrating that the war’s ‘acceptable violence’ benchmark is a moving target. In a dramatic escalation, Polish authorities have accused Ukrainian men, allegedly working with Russian security services, of carrying out acts of “state-sponsored terror” by sabotaging railway lines near Warsaw. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called this one of the most dangerous security situations since the war began. This incident serves two geopolitical functions for the Kremlin: it sows division within the supportive coalition by implicating actors near Kyiv, and it serves as a tangible demonstration to the West that continuing the conflict, or even simply supporting Ukraine, risks unpredictable, state-level escalation outside the primary war zone. The response—Poland closing its last remaining Russian consulate in Gdańsk—is a measured, yet clear, diplomatic hardening in the face of perceived infiltration and aggression.
Charting the Road Ahead: From Secret Talks to Lasting Cessation
The tragedy in Ternopil, juxtaposed with the quiet maneuvering in Washington and the high-level summit in Turkey, has brought the conflict to a critical inflection point. The next few weeks will determine if this combination of extreme violence and opaque diplomacy can unlock a genuine path to peace or simply recalibrate the acceptable level of destruction.
Conditions for Public Dialogue Graduation. Find out more about Kremlin response to secret peace talks Ukraine overview.
For the secret, back-channel efforts to transition into a public, inclusive, and viable path to a lasting cessation of bloodshed, several conditions must be met, and frankly, they look challenging as of this moment on November 19, 2025:
One important step toward understanding the trajectory is to review the documented positions of other major European players regarding long-term security architecture, which can be found in recent analyses of European security pact developments.
Key Indicators to Watch This Week
To gauge which direction the geopolitical winds are blowing, analysts should focus on three key indicators over the immediate days following November 19th: 1. **Zelenskyy’s Post-Turkey Statement:** Does his rhetoric regarding US signals shift from cautious observation to either firm support or outright skepticism? Any hint of alignment or alienation with the US framework will telegraph his strategy. 2. **The Kremlin’s Response to US Briefings:** Will Dmitri Peskov or Foreign Minister Lavrov issue a statement that signals a minor adjustment in tone regarding the Anchorage/Miami discussions, or will they simply reiterate the fixed positions? A slight softening, even on process rather than substance, would be a major indicator. 3. **The Next Aid Package Details:** The US recently approved a $105 million package for Patriot missile defense upgrades. More broadly, the speed and volume of committed long-range munitions** from all Western partners will signal whether the diplomatic track is running in parallel with, or *instead of*, the military track.
Conclusion: The Price of Leverage and the Test of Unity
The events of November 19, 2025, underscore a brutal strategic reality: in this conflict, military destruction is the primary currency of diplomatic leverage. The tragedy in Ternopil is not just a humanitarian disaster; it is a political instrument. President Zelenskyy faces the near-impossible task of demanding enough military support to hold the line while simultaneously negotiating an end to the war through channels that may not prioritize his core national aims. The secret US-Russia framework, while perhaps born of a desire to stop the bloodshed, risks undermining the foundation of trust upon which all Western support rests. The road ahead is not a straight line toward peace; it is a narrow, perilous path between maximalist demands and diplomatic compromises, with every step being measured by the casualties inflicted and the unity of the coalition supporting Ukraine. The world is watching not just to see *if* a deal is struck, but *what*—and *who*—will be sacrificed to achieve it. Actionable Takeaway for the Engaged Citizen: Do not mistake diplomatic chatter for progress. The true barometer for the next phase is the delivery rate of high-end air defense systems and the explicit, public alignment between Kyiv and Washington on core territorial sovereignty. Stay informed by focusing on these tangible metrics, not just official pronouncements. What are your thoughts on the viability of a peace deal inspired by the Gaza agreement? Do you believe the unity of European allies can withstand an imposed US-Russia framework? Share your analysis in the comments below.